Pocket Change: The world holds its breath over Trump 2.0

The impacts of a second Trump administration in the U.S. are far from certain, but we do have some directional indicators based on his campaign promises. The negative effects on immigrant communities, reproductive rights, and the ability of trans folks to access care are likely to be consequential. And corporate social responsibility efforts – especially those that use terms that have been turned into lightning rods like “DEI” or “ESG” – are likely to continue to face headwinds.

On the economic impacts, experts seem more divided. In the immediate aftermath of the results, markets surged – especially cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, whose backers had viewed a potential Trump administration as more friendly to the industry. But other investors are worried about higher inflation from potential tariffs and increased debt-financing costs that could come from his proposed tax cuts. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell is already gearing up for a fight with the new administration over control of monetary policy.

We don’t know what will happen over the next four years – and anyone claiming they do is fooling themselves. But if the first administration is any indication, we can at least expect the kind of day-to-day chaotic news cycles that will tax the mental energy of employees and the time of executive decision makers.

There are ways we can prepare now. Our advice to clients has been consistent:

• Re-visit your foundational purpose and values statements. Many decisions over the next four years will inevitably require referencing what the company says it stands for
• Have a crisis communications plan in place now that reflects the complexity of the modern media environment, including under-the-radar social networks
• Start investing in leadership training that emphasizes adaptability, as well as emotional and cultural intelligence
• Plan along multiple time horizons for potential impacts to business continuity

Many of our recommendations reflect the kind of best practices the most adaptable companies already put into place; the kind I wrote about in No Point B. A newly empowered President Trump, unhindered by the kinds of guardrails he had around him in his first administration, makes these practices even more urgent.

Keeping an eye on:

• MARKET FANTASIES  –  The IMF is concerned about the disconnect between heightened geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility. Yikes.
• A.I. VALUATIONS –  Continuing to ride the hype, Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company. (But does it have an expiration date?)
• ROBOT THOUGHTS  – One unexpected effect of our new dependence on A.I.: family members using ChatGPT during arguments.
• SHIT POSTERS  –  According to Owl Labs’ 2024 “State of Hybrid Work” report, 34% of workers admit to posting about their job or employer negatively on social media. (Maybe they need a business etiquette class?)
• ENDING SUBSCRIPTIONS  –  The FTC is taking aim at expensive recurring subscriptions with a new “click-to-cancel” rule. Should make it easier to cancel that subscription to Chick-fil-a entertainment.
• CONFIDENT OPINIONS  –  New research shows that we often overestimate our ability to have an informed opinion about a topic based on very little information – but importantly, we’re willing to change our minds.

Managing Partner at 18 Coffees